This portfolio chases the structural shift that persists regardless of war’s outcome: For instance with this Iran conflict, even after a ceasefire, the world’s supply chains have been permanently repriced around Hormuz risk. Shipping rates via Cape of Good Hope are now a competitive alternative. Fertilizer supply chains are being reconsidered. US LNG is now a geopolitical necessity for multiple allies. These structural repricing effects last 12-24 months post-ceasefire, not just during the conflict.

So we’re looking for high-probability, time-resilient trade clusters:

Fertilizer (CF, MOS) — least crowded, longest duration of impact US LNG (LNG, Cheniere) — structural demand shift from Asia and Europe Defense (ITA) — GCC rearmament cycle is a 5-year story regardless Tanker equities (DHT) — not BWET futures which are already fully priced

Avoiding risk of a violent reversals on any peace signal: BWET, XOP (already up 43%), and any pure oil-price-levered plays.

The graph above represents the equity from following the portfolio in the recent past.

In the Details section below, the Assets tab shows the range that each currently active asset allocation can achieve.